The World Bank has lowered Nigeria’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 3.6 per cent, a 0.4 percentage point drop from its earlier projection; however, it expects the economy of Africa’s most populous nation to expand for three consecutive years, a rare bright spot amid widespread global uncertainty.
The Bank, in its Global Economic Prospects report released this week, outlines a cautiously optimistic trajectory for Nigeria, with projected growth rising to 3.7 per cent in 2026 and 3.8 per cent in 2027. The forecast suggests a period of steady recovery for a country that has faced years of macroeconomic volatility, high inflation, and foreign exchange instability.
The revised Nigerian outlook comes as the World Bank slashes global growth expectations. The 2025 global GDP forecast was lowered to 2.3 per cent, citing rising trade tensions, increased tariffs, and heightened policy uncertainty, particularly following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this year.
Growth forecasts were cut across most major economies, including the United States, China, and the Euro Area, as well as in six key emerging market regions. However, Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as one of only two regions expected to see an acceleration in growth over the forecast period.
The region is projected to expand by 3.7 per cent in 2025, with average growth rising to 4.2 per cent in 2026 and 2027. Nigeria, alongside South Africa and Kenya, is seen as a key driver of this resilience, buoyed by improved policy environments and stabilising inflation.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s projected growth is being supported by ongoing efforts to stabilise its macroeconomic framework. These include fiscal reforms aimed at reducing dependence on oil revenues, tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation, and initiatives to improve government revenue and spending efficiency.
Inflation, which had spiked in recent years, has shown signs of easing, helping to restore consumer and investor confidence. The Bank also cites strong performance in non-oil sectors such as agriculture and digital technology as evidence of Nigeria’s shifting economic base.
“Improving macroeconomic management and targeted investment in infrastructure and innovation are laying the groundwork for medium-term growth,” the report noted. “However, sustained reform momentum will be critical.”
While the outlook is positive, the World Bank warns that Nigeria’s recovery remains vulnerable to both internal and external shocks. Domestic risks include persistent unemployment, infrastructure bottlenecks, and security challenges in parts of the country. Externally, global trade disruptions or a renewed inflation surge could undermine progress.
“A deterioration in the global economic environment or setbacks in domestic reform could derail Nigeria’s growth trajectory,” the Bank cautioned.
Still, Nigeria’s inclusion among the few countries expected to experience consistent growth offers a sense of momentum and opportunity. Policymakers are now under pressure to turn forecasted gains into broad-based improvements in living standards.
With the world economy facing a turbulent period, Nigeria’s path though not without challenges could mark a shift toward long-term resilience. Whether this projected expansion materializes depends largely on the country’s ability to sustain reforms, attract investment, and address structural barriers to inclusive growth.