Geregu Power PLC is expecting a profit of N12.03 billion in the first quarter of 2026, fueled by steady income from energy sales and capacity charges.
This projection is despite pressures from administrative expenses and financing costs.
Forecast data show revenue at N57.12 billion against a cost of sales of N34.24 billion, which delivers a gross profit of N22.88 billion.
After impairment losses on financial assets amounting to N2.25 billion and administrative expenses of N2.51 billion, operating profit is projected to settle at N18.12 billion.
A finance income estimate of N1.14 billion is expected to be offset by N2.20 billion in finance costs, resulting in a net finance cost of N1.06 billion. Profit before tax is therefore projected at N17.06 billion, with tax expenses of N5.03 billion taking the forecast net profit to N12.03 billion.
The company’s cash flow outlook further emphasises prudent liquidity deployment. Net cash generated from operating activities is projected at N21.66 billion, driven by receipts of N57.78 billion for energy and capacity charges and moderated by N27.78 billion paid to suppliers and employees as well as N8.34 billion paid as income taxes. Cash generated from operations stood at N30.00 billion before adjustments.
Investing activities reflect a net inflow of N0.52 billion after accounting for interest income of N1.27 billion, minor spending on intangible assets of N0.01 billion and N0.74 billion allocated to major overhaul financing. Financing activities show a projected net outflow of N8.30 billion, influenced by interest payments of N1.95 billion and bond repayments of N6.35 billion.
By the close of the quarter, the company anticipates a net increase of N13.88 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which would lift its position from N32.80 billion at the start of 2026 to N46.68 billion at the end of March. Operating cash flow before working-capital adjustments is estimated at N20.20 billion.
Market analysts suggest that the forecast may provide additional support for investor sentiment as the company continues to expand maintenance investments and optimise debt management.
Geregu Power PLC, listed on the Nigerian Exchange, operates a 435 megawatt gas-fired facility in Ajaokuta, Kogi State, and remains one of the key private-sector contributors to West Africa’s evolving sustainable-energy strategy.
This projection comes against the backdrop of recent performance indicators. For the six months to June 30, 2025, revenue climbed to N87.63 billion from N80.68 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. Profit after tax in the period rose marginally to N20.18 billion from N20.01 billion. Second-quarter pre-tax profit was N13.30 billion, representing 61 per cent growth year-on-year as revenue advanced by roughly 85 per cent to N55.88 billion.
More recent numbers released for the nine months to September 2025 showed cumulative revenue of N131.47 billion, an increase of about 16.8 per cent year-on-year, while profit after tax rose by about 3.8 per cent to N25.10 billion. Earnings per share increased to N10.04 from N9.68. Third-quarter standalone pre-tax profit surged by approximately 82 per cent to N11.15 billion on revenue growth of about 37 per cent.
Even so, liquidity pressures are building. Total assets climbed to about N273.15 billion by the third quarter, but trade receivables expanded to roughly N170.35 billion, suggesting slower collections from sector counterparties. Net cash generated from operations for the period fell to N24.3 billion from about N38.7 billion the previous year, reflecting tightening working-capital conditions. Shareholders’ equity increased to about N56.41 billion on the back of retained earnings, while borrowings and related obligations also expanded, resulting in rising finance-cost exposure.
Geregu Power’s Q1 2026 outlook therefore appears to balance profitability with a strategic focus on liquidity optimisation and operational reliability in a sector where surging demand continues to outpace infrastructure delivery. Further developments in regulatory frameworks and gas supply investments will likely determine the pace of the company’s long-term earnings trajectory.
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