Nigeria’s economy is expected to see a modest but meaningful boost next year, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projecting the country’s current account surplus to rise to $18.81 billion in 2026, up from $16.94 billion in 2025.
According to the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, this surplus will account for 11.16% of GDP, reflecting stronger foreign inflows, rising exports, and growing diaspora remittances.
“Attractive yields are likely to continue drawing foreign investments, supporting our reserves and the overall financial system,” the report noted.
What’s Driving the Growth
The bank said portfolio investment inflows and external borrowing will help keep Nigeria’s financial account in a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion, while the country’s International Investment Position (IIP) is expected to show a net borrowing of $69.58 billion. Reforms in the foreign exchange market are expected to stabilize the naira, and foreign reserves could rise to $51 billion by the end of 2026.
On the domestic front, inflation is expected to ease significantly. After averaging 21.26% in 2025, the bank projects headline inflation to drop to 12.94% next year, thanks to falling food prices and lower fuel costs.
“We still need to watch out for unexpected shocks,” the CBN warned, pointing to risks from higher-than-expected government spending, global financial market volatility, and climate or oil production disruptions.
Exports, Imports, and Remittances
The outlook shows that non-oil exports, including agricultural products and creative goods, are likely to keep growing, supported by government initiatives like the National Export Trading Company and the National Intellectual Property Policy.
However, imports are also expected to rise to $43.27 billion, reflecting stronger demand for machinery and equipment needed for growing economic activity. The services deficit, covering payments for business and transport services, is projected to increase to $13.68 billion.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s secondary income account—which includes remittances from Nigerians abroad—is forecast to rise to $26.13 billion, up from $23.82 billion in 2025. The CBN noted that some of these funds may support activities related to the upcoming elections.
The Bottom Line
Overall, the CBN paints a cautiously optimistic picture for 2026. With stronger exports, rising remittances, and continued foreign investment, Nigeria’s current account surplus is set to improve, but careful economic management will be key to keeping inflation in check and ensuring the naira remains stable.
