Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased again in December 2025, dropping to 15.5 per cent from 17.33 per cent. This marks a continued slowdown in price pressures toward the year’s end, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The data reflects a significant deceleration from the 34.80 per cent recorded in December 2024. On a month-on-month basis, inflation stood at 0.54 per cent, lower than the 1.22 per cent recorded in November, indicating a slower pace of increase in average price levels.
Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) had earlier projected inflation to ease to 14 per cent based on signs of recovery after two years of economic turbulence marked by high inflation, currency depreciation, and factory shutdowns. As of September 2025, headline inflation had declined to 18.02 percent from a record 34.8 percent in December 2024, while the naira appreciated by 11.3 percent year-on-year to between ₦1,458 and ₦1,495 per dollar.
External reserves have also risen to $43 billion, the highest in six years, providing import cover for up to nine months. GDP growth accelerated to 4.23 percent in the second quarter of 2025, supported by a 20.46 percent increase in oil output and steady performance in non-oil sectors.
A recent economic rebasing to a 2019 base year valued Nigeria’s economy at $243 billion, though manufacturing’s GDP share remains at 9.6 percent, below its historical average.
Days after the apex bank’s projection, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose marginally to 131.2 points in December 2025 from 130.5 points in the preceding month, underscoring a continued but moderated movement in prices. The NBS attributed the improved inflation outlook partly to a revised methodology that adopted a twelve-month index reference period for 2024, a move aimed at minimising base effect distortions and aligning Nigeria’s inflation measurement with international best practice.
Food inflation, a key driver of household expenditure, eased notably during the month. The food inflation rate slowed to 10.84 percent year on year in December 2025 from 39.84 percent a year earlier. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation declined by 0.36 percent, reflecting price reductions across several staple items including tomatoes, garri, eggs, onions, beans, millet and vegetables.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, also moderated. The core inflation rate stood at 18.63 percent year on year in December 2025, down from 29.28 percent in December 2024, while month on month core inflation eased to 0.58 percent.
A breakdown of inflation across settlement types showed that urban inflation moderated to 14.85 percent year on year, while rural inflation stood at 14.56 percent. Notably, rural inflation declined by 0.55 percent on a month on month basis, pointing to easing price pressures in non-urban areas.
At the subnational level, Abia, Ogun and Katsina recorded the highest year on year headline inflation rates in December 2025, while Sokoto, Plateau and Kaduna posted the lowest increases. In terms of food inflation, Yobe, Ogun and Abuja recorded the fastest year on year increases, whereas Akwa Ibom, Sokoto and Plateau saw the slowest rises.
The moderation in headline, food and core inflation suggests gradual macroeconomic stabilization, supported by easing supply side pressures and improving price dynamics.
Analysts note that while inflation remains elevated, the downward trend toward year end provides cautious optimism for households, businesses and policymakers as Nigeria enters the new year.
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