The health risks posed by plastic production, consumption, and disposal are expected to surge dramatically in the coming decades, according to a new international study, unless urgent global action is taken to curb the crisis.
The research, conducted by a team of British and French scientists, aimed to quantify the full spectrum of ways in which plastics impact human health—from the extraction of oil and gas used in production to the eventual disposal of plastic products in landfills. The study, published on Tuesday in The Lancet Planetary Health, is the first to estimate the global loss of healthy life years attributable to the lifecycle of plastic.
Lead author Megan Deeney of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine highlighted that the study likely underestimates the total impact, as it does not yet account for additional hazards such as microplastics or chemicals leaching from food packaging.
Measuring the Health Impact
The researchers employed a metric known as DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years), which calculates years lost due to premature death or reduced quality of life caused by illness. Under a “business-as-usual” scenario, DALYs linked to plastic are projected to more than double—from 2.1 million in 2016 to 4.5 million by 2040.
The largest contributor to these health impacts is greenhouse gas emissions from plastic production, followed by air pollution and exposure to toxic chemicals.
Plastic Production and Public Health Risks
Deeney used the example of a typical plastic water bottle, made from polyethylene terephthalate (PET). Its production begins with fossil fuel extraction, followed by chemical processing to form the plastic. She pointed out that regions such as Louisiana, home to over 200 petrochemical plants, are notoriously dubbed “cancer alley” due to elevated rates of pollution-linked illnesses.
Once produced, plastic products are transported globally and often end up in landfills or as litter. Despite recycling initiatives, the vast majority of plastic persists for centuries, releasing chemicals that continue to affect human health.
Reducing Plastic at the Source
The study also modeled scenarios aimed at mitigating the health impact of plastics. Results suggest that recycling alone has limited effect. The most effective strategy is reducing the production of “unnecessary” plastic from the outset.
Efforts to establish a global treaty addressing plastic pollution collapsed in August due to resistance from oil-producing nations. Nevertheless, Deeney emphasized that individual countries can implement national policies to address this “global public health crisis.”
The findings underscore the urgency of tackling plastic pollution not just as an environmental issue, but as a pressing health challenge, with far-reaching consequences for millions of people worldwide.
