Think Tank Reframes Nigeria’s Debt Debate

A policy group has called for a more careful reading of Nigeria’s borrowing figures, saying currency changes have distorted how the country’s debt is understood.

Think Business Africa, a policy and communications group, has argued that former President Muhammadu Buhari recorded the largest rise in Nigeria’s debt since 1999, not President Bola Tinubu as widely claimed. The group made the statement amid ongoing public debate over government borrowing under the current administration.

The discussion has grown sharper in recent months as the Tinubu administration faces criticism over continued borrowing, even after fuel subsidy removal and tax reforms that increased government revenue. The group, however, said such comparisons often rely on naira figures that do not reflect the full picture.

In its report, Think Business Africa said much of the apparent jump in Nigeria’s debt stock since 2023 is linked to the revaluation of the naira, following exchange-rate adjustments, rather than a large rise in fresh loans. It explained that the shift significantly increased the local currency value of existing foreign obligations.

The group stated: “President Tinubu is not Nigeria’s largest borrower since the return to democratic rule in 1999. Claims that the current administration has borrowed more than all previous administrations combined are inconsistent with available dollar-denominated debt data.”

It added that Nigeria’s external debt rose from about $42.5 billion in 2023 to roughly $51.9 billion by 2025, an increase of around $9.4 billion. It contrasted this with the 2015 to 2023 period, when external debt reportedly increased from about $10.3 billion to $42.9 billion, describing it as a far larger rise.

According to the group, exchange-rate unification in June 2023 triggered a sharp depreciation of the naira, which inflated the domestic valuation of foreign debts already owed. It noted that the inherited $42.5 billion debt was previously valued at about ₦19.6 trillion under the old rate regime.

The report also acknowledged Nigeria’s continued fiscal strain, saying rising debt servicing costs are limiting spending on infrastructure, education, healthcare and security.

However, it did not fully address that Buhari’s administration spanned eight years, compared with Tinubu’s three years so far, which affects direct comparisons.

Should Nigeria’s debt conversation focus more on borrowing volumes or currency effects?