IMF Warns Rising Prices Threatens Poor Nigeria’s
IMF projects steady Nigeria economic growth but warns rising essential goods prices could worsen poverty and food insecurity nationwide.
Rising essential goods prices could worsen poverty and food insecurity in Nigeria, despite stronger economic stability, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that higher essential goods prices will likely increase poverty and food insecurity in Nigeria, even as the country benefits from improved macroeconomic stability. In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF kept its Nigeria economic growth forecast unchanged at 4.1 per cent for 2026 and 4.3 per cent for 2027.
The report said growth across Sub-Saharan Africa should remain steady at 4.3 per cent in 2026, although economic performance will vary between countries because of differences in policy choices, reform progress and exposure to external shocks. The IMF noted that oil-importing countries with limited natural resources face greater pressure from rising energy and food costs. It also said some larger economies continue to benefit from earlier reforms, although they have gained little from the global technology expansion driven by artificial intelligence (AI).
The report stated: “Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favorable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity.”
The IMF also reduced its global growth forecast to 3.0 per cent for 2026 and 3.4 per cent for 2027, down from the average 3.5 per cent recorded in 2024 and 2025. It linked the slower outlook to the impact of the Middle East conflict, although stronger demand linked to artificial intelligence (AI) has helped soften the slowdown.
The organisation added that global inflation is expected to rise from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before easing to 3.9 per cent in 2027. It also warned that renewed conflict, trade fragmentation and continued supply chain disruptions could increase prices further and weaken economic growth. The IMF urged governments to restore price stability, strengthen public finances and continue reforms that improve energy security, AI readiness and international cooperation.
How should Nigeria balance economic reforms with measures to protect households from rising living costs?
