Nigeria’s Composite PMI Rises to 51.1 in July

Nigeria’s economic activity returned to stronger expansion in July 2026, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 51.1 points, supported by sustained growth in the agriculture sector and a rebound in services activity.

The July reading marked the second consecutive month of expansion in overall economic activity, with 20 of the 32 subsectors covered by the survey recording growth. The remaining 12 subsectors contracted.

The latest Central Bank of Nigeria July 2026 PMI reading also showed that the recovery was broadening across key components of business activity, although industrial output remained under pressure.

The Composite PMI is a diffusion index where a reading above 50 points indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction and 50 represents no change.

The Services PMI rose sharply to 51.1 points in July from 49.4 points in June, marking the sector’s return to expansion after three consecutive months of contraction.

The recovery was driven by improvements in business activity, employment and new orders. Of the 11 services subsectors surveyed, eight recorded expansion, while three contracted.

Administrative and Support Services recorded the strongest growth during the month, while Transportation, Courier and Storage recorded the steepest contraction within the services sector.

The return of services to expansion helped offset weakness in the industrial sector and contributed significantly to the improvement in the composite reading.

The Agriculture PMI remained unchanged at 52.1 points, extending the sector’s expansion streak to 24 consecutive months.

Four of the five agricultural subsectors recorded growth, with Agricultural Support Services posting the strongest expansion. Crop Production was the only subsector to record a contraction.

The sector’s key indicators remained in expansionary territory. General Farming Activities recorded 54.4 points, New Orders stood at 52.8 points, Employment was at 50.9 points, while Inventories recorded 50.5 points.

The sustained expansion highlights the continued resilience of agricultural activity despite broader cost and operating pressures in the economy.

The Industry PMI, meanwhile, remained below the 50-point threshold at 49.6 points in July, although this represented a marginal improvement from 49.5 points in June. The reading indicated a slower pace of contraction in industrial activity. The sector’s weakness was driven by declines in production, new orders and raw material inventories.

The Output Index stood at 49.2 points, while the Raw Materials Inventory Index fell to 48.2 points, both indicating contraction.

However, some indicators showed resilience. Employment remained expansionary at 50.5 points, while the Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index stood at 51.3 points, pointing to improved supplier response times and supply chain efficiency.

Of the 16 industrial subsectors surveyed, eight expanded while eight contracted.

Oil Refining recorded the steepest contraction among the subsectors, while Electrical and Electronics posted the strongest growth across the 32 subsectors covered by the composite survey.

The components of the Composite PMI also pointed to continued improvement in underlying business activity.

The Output Index rose to 51.8 points, while the Employment Index stood at 51.1 points and the New Orders Index at 50.8 points. All three remained above the 50-point threshold, indicating expansion.

However, the Stock of Raw Materials Index remained in contraction at 49.6 points.

The Suppliers’ Delivery Time Index recorded 51.3 points, signalling faster supplier response times during the month.

Taken together, the figures suggest that businesses experienced an improvement in production and demand conditions, while employment also remained supportive of economic activity.

Price pressures moderate

The July survey also pointed to a moderation in input and output price pressures.

The Composite PMI’s input price index recorded a month-on-month change of 1.6 points, while the output price index recorded 3.1 points.

The moderation suggests some easing in the pace of cost and selling price pressures faced by businesses, although price movements remained a key factor influencing operating conditions.

The Services and Agriculture sectors recorded higher month-on-month changes in output prices than in their corresponding input price indices.

Cautiously positive outlook

Overall, the July PMI points to a gradual improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions, with the return of services to growth and continued agricultural expansion compensating for the contraction in industry.

The second consecutive month of composite expansion, combined with positive readings for output, new orders and employment, suggests that growth momentum is gradually strengthening.

However, the continued contraction in industrial activity indicates that the recovery remains uneven across sectors.

The survey was conducted from July 6 to 10, 2026, covering 1,900 purchasing and supply executives across the Industry, Services and Agriculture sectors.

From July 2026, the PMI sectoral and subsector classifications were realigned with the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) while maintaining consistency with the economic activity classifications recognised by the National Bureau of Statistics for GDP reporting.

The realignment involved changes to selected sector and subsector groupings, including the consolidation of closely related activities and introduction of additional categories where necessary, aimed at improving consistency and comparability of PMI data.

The July results therefore present a cautiously positive picture of Nigeria’s near-term economic trajectory, with sustained agricultural growth and the services sector’s return to expansion providing support for overall activity, while industrial weakness remains a constraint on a broader-based recovery.