Nigeria’s Oil Production Surge Boosted by Improved Security

Nigeria’s oil production surge is gaining momentum as lower pipeline losses and improved security help restore stability across the Niger Delta.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show that oil losses through pipelines have fallen to historically low levels. At the same time, combined crude oil and condensate production rose to about 1.735 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, marking a fourth consecutive monthly increase.

The improvement has been linked to greater protection of oil infrastructure and increased stability in the Niger Delta. The operations of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL) have also been credited by several stakeholders with helping to protect pipelines and other national assets.

For years, Nigeria lost billions of dollars through oil theft, pipeline vandalism, community interference and production shutdowns. These problems weakened government revenues and pushed crude output to low levels.

The recent oil production surge, however, points to a change in the sector. NUPRC figures indicate that reduced pipeline losses and improved operational continuity are supporting higher production.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appointed TSSNL, led by High Chief Dr Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, to support the protection of oil assets in the Niger Delta. The company works alongside other security agencies to safeguard critical infrastructure and support peace in oil-producing communities.

Its pipeline surveillance operations have been credited with reducing oil theft and breaches, helping to maintain the movement of petroleum resources. Stakeholders say this has allowed the country to move from constant crisis management towards greater stability, planning and growth.

OPEC quota achieved for third consecutive month

Nigeria met its OPEC production quota for the third consecutive month in July, according to NUPRC data.

The country produced an average of 1.505mbpd of crude oil, while condensate contributed another 0.17mbpd, bringing combined production to 1.67mbpd.

Daily output reached a high of 1.78mbpd and a low of 1.57mbpd during the month.

“Despite some operational problems at a few fields, Nigeria met the OPEC quota of 1.5mbpd in July,” a NUPRC spokesperson said.

However, total production fell by 4 per cent compared with June. The regulator attributed much of the decline to operational problems at the Erha and Akpo fields.

“Disruptions at Erha and Akpo constrained volumes and were a significant factor in the production shortfall for the month,” the spokesperson said.

The NUPRC added that most other producing assets remained stable and that operators introduced measures to limit the effect of the disruptions.

Domestic crude supply improves

NUPRC’s second-quarter 2026 data also showed stronger compliance with the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO).

A total of 53.7 million barrels of crude oil and condensate were supplied to local refineries between April and June, representing an overall performance rate of 97.4 per cent.

The DCSO is administered under Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). Each month, the NUPRC meets producers and licensed domestic refineries before assigning producers volumes that should be offered to local refiners.

The framework operates under a “willing buyer, willing seller” arrangement.

Month	Crude allocated	Crude offered	Actual supply	Performance
April	18.13m barrels	19.31m barrels	20.88m barrels	114.9%
May	18.78m barrels	23.19m barrels	14.23m barrels	75.8%
June	18.17m barrels	26.84m barrels	18.61m barrels	102.4%

The NUPRC said the improvement in DCSO performance coincided with higher local production and the signing of long-term crude supply agreements backed by bankable sales and purchase agreements between producers and domestic refiners.

The Dangote Refinery required 63 million barrels during the second quarter, while producers offered 68.1 million barrels. The refinery eventually accepted 52.6 million barrels, equivalent to 78 per cent of the volume offered.

The commission said it remains committed to improving energy sufficiency and sustaining gains in crude production while enforcing the DCSO.

Stakeholders highlight pipeline security

President General of the Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Nse Victor Udoh, said effective pipeline protection had helped national institutions move from short-term crisis response towards longer-term planning.

He stressed that pipeline surveillance is only one part of the wider energy system, but said it remains essential because production, refining, exports and government revenue all depend on reliable petroleum transportation.

“It is important to clarify the role of pipeline surveillance within the wider energy landscape. Energy security encompasses the full value chain, from exploration and production to refining, distribution, pricing policy, and subsidy frameworks. Pipeline surveillance does not manage these domains,” he said.

He added: “Its mandate is precise: safeguarding critical infrastructure that transports petroleum resources. Yet this single function has proven foundational. Without secure transportation channels, production targets falter, refining plans collapse, exports decline, and fiscal projections become unreliable.”

Continuing, he wrote: “Asset protection, in this context, is not a supporting activity. It is a precondition for economic order. In effect, the pipeline is the hinge on which the entire petroleum value chain turns. When that hinge is weak, every other link in the chain carries strain. When it is secure, the entire system gains coherence.”

According to Udoh, sustained monitoring and faster responses have reduced pipeline breaches and illegal tapping. He said stronger crude flows could improve export earnings, foreign exchange inflows and government finances.

He also argued that greater reliability would help refineries plan crude supplies, enable exporters to meet contracts and give investors a clearer view of risks in Nigeria’s petroleum sector.

“Economic stability follows predictability. When crude flows are secure, refineries can plan feedstock intake with assurance. Export commitments can be met without fear of sudden shortfalls. Gas-to-power projects can operate without recurrent shutdown risks.”

Udoh said stronger and more predictable oil revenues could also give the government greater room to invest in infrastructure, social services and economic diversification while reducing pressure for emergency borrowing.

Niger Delta leaders back continued security efforts

Traditional rulers and community leaders in the Niger Delta have also called for continued support for Tantita Security Services, following a vote of confidence in the company by the National Assembly.

The leaders said the company’s involvement in protecting oil and gas pipelines had contributed to improved security and created employment opportunities for young people in oil-producing communities.

Christopher Akpotu, President-General of the Isoko Development Union, praised the joint Senate and House of Representatives committee for dismissing petitions against the company.

“That is the right way to go,” he said. “There are many opportunities in the oil and gas sector. We should focus on how to derive more benefits rather than fighting over what has already been allocated.”

Akpotu warned that continued disputes between communities could create opportunities for outsiders to benefit from resources intended for host communities.

“At the end of the day, if we continue fighting, we give room to those who have no stake in our communities to take what rightfully belongs to us,” he added.

Similarly, Sam Akpemegi, President-General of the Ughelli Descendants Union, said Tantita had improved security since beginning its operations. He noted that the company uses both visible security measures and intelligence-led strategies across many communities.

“They have done very well and improved security since they began operations,” he said.

Nigeria’s recent oil production surge therefore reflects several developments across the petroleum sector, including lower pipeline losses, improved asset security and stronger domestic crude supply. Sustaining these gains will remain important for government revenues, foreign exchange earnings and the wider Nigerian economy.

Can Nigeria sustain its oil production gains if pipeline security and Niger Delta stability continue to improve?