Global Cancer Cases Set to Surge by 2050

The global cancer burden is rising rapidly, with 20.6 million new cases and 9.8 million deaths recorded worldwide in 2024.

The figures come from the latest GLOBOCAN 2024 estimates by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the specialised cancer agency of the World Health Organisation. The agency projects that annual cancer cases could reach 34 million by 2050, representing a 67 per cent increase from 2024.

Cancer deaths could also rise to 17.5 million a year, nearly 80 per cent above the current level.

The estimates were released as IARC marked its 60th anniversary and provided a detailed picture of cancer incidence and deaths across countries, regions, age groups and sexes.

Of the 20.6 million new cases recorded in 2024, 10.6 million occurred among men and 10 million among women. Men also accounted for 56 per cent of the 9.8 million cancer deaths, compared with 44 per cent for women.

Freddie Bray, Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at IARC, said the figures showed the heavier impact of cancer on men.

“One in nine men and one in 13 women die from cancer. This reflects the variation in cancer types between men and women and the generally poorer prognosis of cancers affecting men,” he said.

The global cancer burden also varies sharply between regions. Population size, ageing, exposure to risk factors and unequal access to prevention and treatment all influence the figures.

China accounts for about one in four cancer cases and deaths worldwide. Europe, despite having only 9.2 per cent of the world’s population, records more than 20 per cent of global cancer incidence.

IARC said standardised cancer incidence rates can differ by as much as three times between countries, while mortality rates can vary by up to five times.

Countries such as Australia and Denmark recorded some of the highest incidence rates, while some of the lowest were found in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Mortality rates were highest in Eastern Europe and Melanesia. Individual countries also faced particularly high burdens from specific cancers, including liver cancer in Mongolia and cervical cancer in Zimbabwe.

Bray said these differences reflected variations in cancer risks as well as inequalities in early detection, diagnosis and access to effective treatment.

“To simply maintain current numbers of cases and deaths, we would need a 2 percent decline in both incidence and mortality every year – and we are nowhere near that,” he warned.

Lung cancer remains the world’s leading cancer in both incidence and mortality. It is the biggest cause of cancer deaths in 89 countries, particularly among men.

Breast cancer is also among the most frequently diagnosed cancers globally. Outside China, it is the most commonly diagnosed cancer across all Human Development Index levels. Among women, it is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in 164 countries and the leading cause of cancer death in 122 countries.

Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among men in 123 countries, partly because of increased diagnostic testing.

IARC said cancer patterns are increasingly influenced by sex, economic development, ageing populations and infections. In sub-Saharan Africa, breast and cervical cancers account for more than half of all cancers among women. Infection-related cancers are responsible for about 80 per cent of preventable cancers in the region.

The agency warned that continued tobacco use, ageing populations and persistent inequalities in cancer control could drive further increases in cases and deaths.

Some high-income countries have started to record falling mortality because of prevention, earlier detection and better treatment. However, cancer incidence continues to rise in most parts of the world.

The latest GLOBOCAN 2024 estimates also highlighted another serious problem: a lack of reliable cancer data. Only one in three countries currently reports high-quality cancer incidence figures, while just one in four has dependable mortality data.

These weaknesses make it harder for governments to understand their cancer burden, plan health services, distribute resources and measure whether cancer-control programmes are working.

The Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) said the figures showed the urgent need for stronger national cancer-control plans and greater investment in cancer prevention, early detection, diagnosis and treatment.

The organisation noted that about half of cancer deaths are considered avoidable through proven measures such as tobacco control, vaccination, screening and fair access to effective treatment.

The World Health Organisation also released its Global Status Report on Cancer 2026, using GLOBOCAN 2024 data to assess worldwide progress in tackling the disease.

The WHO report found that progress remains uneven, with major differences in access to prevention, diagnosis and treatment. It also pointed to health-system problems that delay care in many countries and continuing weaknesses in cancer data.

The report further highlighted the financial burden of cancer and the effect of late diagnosis on patients and their families.

The latest figures show the scale of the challenge facing health systems worldwide. Without sustained efforts to reduce both cancer incidence and mortality, the global cancer burden is likely to grow dramatically over the coming decades.

What steps should governments prioritise now to prevent the projected rise in cancer cases and deaths?