As political parties intensify preparations for Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, political analyst John Oke has warned that the battle for the presidency will not be won on social media, but at the grassroots—particularly through door-to-door mobilisation.
Oke, Managing Director and CEO of Chancery Consulting Limited, noted that the large number of registered voters who abstained from the 2023 presidential election could become a decisive force in 2027 if properly mobilised.
“The most potent voting bloc in the country today does not possess a registered party logo, a national chairman, or a regional campaign headquarters,” Oke stated. “Instead, it is comprised of the massive, silent demographic of roughly 62 million citizens who collected their Permanent Voter Cards but chose to stay home during the 2023 presidential election.”
Voter Apathy: The Biggest Challenge
Oke pointed out that about 62 million Nigerians collected their PVCs but did not participate in the last presidential election—a figure far eclipsing the fewer than nine million votes secured by the eventual winner. He argued that the central challenge is no longer voter registration, but convincing registered voters that their participation can make a difference.
He explained that this group is diverse, cutting across age, region, gender, and social class—including young Nigerians seeking jobs, urban professionals frustrated by election logistics, and rural dwellers affected by insecurity and economic hardship. Many, he said, are not politically indifferent but have become disillusioned with the process.
“For the millions who opted out, the core issue is not an absence of political interest, but an acute deficit of trust in the electoral process itself,” Oke said.
Social Media Hype Won’t Win Elections
Oke cautioned political parties against mistaking social media buzz for real electoral strength. While social media plays a role in shaping discourse and influencing narratives, he said, online popularity must be translated into physical structures at the ward, community, and polling-unit levels.
He warned that candidates who rely solely on social media influencers and online propaganda could struggle to convert digital popularity into votes.
Instead, he advocated for data-driven, localised campaigns tailored to the specific concerns of different communities. “A national campaign message that fails to address the peculiar economic and social challenges confronting different communities may not be sufficient to mobilise the electorate,” he said.
Door-to-Door Mobilisation Is Key
Oke stressed that direct voter engagement—through door-to-door campaigns and neighbourhood mobilisation—could prove more effective than online campaigns in reaching disengaged voters.
“History proves that online enthusiasm must be systematically converted into neighbourhood-level organisation to shift election results,” he explained, identifying door-to-door engagement as a potentially critical strategy for mobilising large numbers of previously inactive voters.
Election-Day Logistics Crucial
He also urged parties to address practical obstacles that discourage turnout, such as transportation difficulties, insecurity, inadequate information, and confusion at polling units. Parties that successfully remove these barriers, while persuading citizens to participate, could gain a significant advantage in 2027.
According to Oke, the presidency will ultimately be won by the candidate or party capable of convincing the largest number of unaligned voters that their votes matter.
He concluded by urging political actors to look beyond social media trends and invest in robust grassroots mobilisation. “The real political battle will take place not only on television screens, campaign platforms, and social media, but also in homes, streets, communities, wards, and polling units across the country,
Comments are closed.