2027 Election: Lagos Traders Split Over Tinubu Reforms, Heightened Living Costs

Across markets in Lagos and neighbouring Ogun State, conversations with traders, mechanics, food sellers and small business operators reveal that the economy is likely to remain central to the political conversation. While some operators argue that Tinubu needs more time for his reforms to deliver results, others say rising food prices, transportation costs and weak purchasing power have made the reforms difficult to defend.

The presidential election is scheduled for January 16, 2027, according to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), while the governorship and State House of Assembly elections are scheduled for February 6. INEC said the 2023 voters’ register contained 93.47 million registered voters, while voter turnout fell to just 26.7 per cent in the 2023 presidential election.

At Oja Agbado Market in Ogun State, Remi Dada, a pepper seller, was unequivocal about his support for the incumbent. “We are for Jagaban here, Baba Tinubu forever, and all of us in this market. We have our voter’s card already, and we will support the second term,” he said.

But voter registration and political enthusiasm do not always move together. Hyacinth Joy, a POS operator in Agege, said she had not received her permanent voter’s card and does not usually vote. “I don’t even have a voter’s card; they gave me a temporary ID since then. I have not seen the original copy, and besides, I don’t vote,” she said, adding that Peter Obi would be her preferred candidate.

At Cow Market, Abdulsalam Musa in  Ijayie, a goat trader, was less interested in the political contest. “I don’t know; I don’t have a voter card, and anyone who becomes the president is less of my concern. Since my goats from Sokoto are coming in, I am fine,” he said.

That attitude captures one of the biggest challenges facing political parties in 2027. Although the election is increasingly dominating national conversation, a sizeable section of informal-sector operators may judge political leadership primarily through whether they can buy, transport and sell goods profitably rather than through party ideology.

For Essemoiah Paul, a thrift-clothes seller at Katangua Market in Lagos, the economic situation has already settled his choice. “I am going to vote for Peter Obi. I voted him  the last time. Are you not tired of this economy going down? Hunger is everywhere. Na Obi, I will vote again and again,” he said.

Ikechukwu James, a mechanic at Oke Odo, also said he would vote for Obi again. “I am voting for Obi again in the next election; with the way Tinubu has done this economy now, businesses are crying for help and have nothing to do about it,” he said. “Peter can fix it, and I believed he would.”

Yet the reform argument has supporters within the same informal economy. Aderemi Bukumi, a provision seller in Mafoluku, Oshodi, said Tinubu should be given time to complete his economic agenda. “Oshodi is for Tinubu, Jagaban forever. He is doing something only because he needs time to actualise what he is doing,” he said. “By the next four years, everything he started will be seen.”

Olajide Gbada, a meat seller at the Abattoir in Agege , was even more categorical. He said political support for the president remained strong in his community. “In Ifako-Ijaiye LGA, my area, we have declared it  an APC local government already, and President Tinubu is our leader. That is why his second tenure is sure because we will make it happen and possible,” he said.

The divergence reflects a broader economic contradiction. Nigeria’s headline inflation has fallen sharply from the peak recorded during the post-subsidy-removal adjustment. The National Bureau of Statistics reported headline inflation at 15.4 per cent in July 2026, down from 15.9 per cent in June. However, food inflation remained significantly higher, at 20.31 per cent in July, keeping pressure on households and traders whose businesses depend directly on food demand.

For market operators, lower headline inflation does not necessarily mean lower prices. A trader who bought a basket of tomatoes or pepper at a much lower price two or three years ago can still face a substantially higher nominal cost even when the rate at which prices are rising begins to slow.

Adamu Adamu, a tomato seller at Ikeja Market, illustrated that distinction. “I won’t be travelling home this election, and anyone who is best wins,” he said. “Things are tough; the amount we buy a basket of tomatoes and pepper during Buhari’s tenure is double it to stay in business. Anyone that would make life easier for us should be the president.”

This is likely to be one of the defining economic questions of the 2027 campaign: whether voters will reward the direction of macroeconomic stabilisation or punish the administration for the accumulated increase in the cost of living.

Tinubu’s economic programme has included the removal of the petrol subsidy, foreign exchange reforms, tighter monetary policy and major tax reforms. These policies have been credited with improving fiscal and external balances and restoring some confidence in the economy, but they also produced significant short-term pressure on households and businesses.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has subsequently moved from aggressive tightening towards a more cautious easing cycle. The Monetary Policy Committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate to 26.5 per cent in February 2026 and retained it at that level at its May and July meetings. The CRR for deposit money banks remains at 45 per cent.

The macroeconomic picture has consequently become more positive than it was during the worst phase of the adjustment. Nigeria recorded real GDP growth of 4 per cent in 2025, while the IMF projected 2026 growth at 4.1 per cent. Moody’s has also pointed to improving external conditions, including stronger reserves, a better-functioning foreign exchange market and moderating inflation.

But the improvement at the macro level has yet to translate uniformly into the market economy. Small businesses remain exposed to high operating costs, expensive credit, electricity expenses, transportation costs and weak consumer demand. For many traders, the relevant question is not whether inflation has fallen from 30 per cent to 15 per cent, but whether customers can afford to buy more goods from their stalls.

Aliyu Sanko, a roadside sugarcane seller in Agbado Market, represents another dimension of the debate. He said he was pleased with the support his family had received from the APC but acknowledged that he did not have a voter’s card. “Tinubu is doing my people well. When I called my wife in Katsina, my village, she said they got some gifts from APC, and I am happy, but I don’t have a voter’s card myself,” he said.

The comments also expose the gap between political preference and actual electoral participation. INEC has warned about declining turnout, which fell from 53.7 per cent in 2011 to 43.6 per cent in 2015, 34.7 per cent in 2019 and 26.7 per cent in 2023. The commission has also embarked on voter revalidation and registration efforts ahead of the 2027 election.

For Tinubu, the political challenge is therefore not simply convincing Nigerians that the economy is improving. It is demonstrating that the improvement can be felt in the price of food, the cost of doing business, household purchasing power and employment.

For opposition candidates, the challenge is equally significant. Turning dissatisfaction with the economy into votes will require convincing voters that an alternative administration can reduce living costs without reversing the macroeconomic gains achieved through the current reforms.

The market conversations suggest that the 2027 election may ultimately be decided by a simple economic calculation: whether Nigerians believe the hardship of the past three years is the necessary cost of rebuilding the economy or evidence that the government’s policies have failed to deliver prosperity.

For now, the answer differs from one market stall to another. In Oja Agbado, some traders are shouting “Jagaban forever”. In Katagua and Oke Odo, others are preparing to vote for Peter Obi leaving an empty gap if market woment still understand that Atiku Abubakar is still contetsting under the People’s democratic Party (PDP). At Ikeja Market, the priority is neither APC nor opposition but whoever can make tomatoes, pepper and everyday life cheaper. And at Cow Market, one trader summed up the most practical view of all: as long as his goats from Sokoto keep arriving, politics can wait.