AXA Mansard Insurance Plc forecasts a net loss of N2.7 billion for the third quarter of 2026, reducing its half-year profit of N7.8 billion to N5.1 billion by the end of September, according to management.
The anticipated Q3 loss marks a significant increase from the N794 million net loss recorded in the same period last year—more than tripling year-on-year.
Management attributes the projected setback to a drop in insurance revenue and a rise in insurance service expenses.
Insurance revenue is expected to fall from N48 billion in Q2 to around N43 billion in Q3, while insurance service expenses are set to climb from N30.8 billion to N35.4 billion. Net reinsurance costs, however, are forecast to decrease quarter-on-quarter from N10.4 billion to N7.2 billion.
Despite these pressures, the insurance service result is projected to edge up only slightly—from N13.2 billion at half-year to N13.9 billion after Q3.
On the positive side, AXA Mansard expects a strong rebound in investment income, with returns rising from N4.7 billion at half-year to approximately N12 billion for the third quarter.
However, this improvement will be insufficient to offset the higher insurance and operating costs. Operating expenses are forecast to rise sharply by N6.4 billion, reaching over N19 billion at the end of Q3.
Consequently, pre-tax profit is projected to fall from N8.4 billion at half-year to N6 billion for the third quarter, with after-tax profit dropping from N7.8 billion to N5.1 billion. Earnings per share are also expected to decline from 87 kobo at half-year to 56 kobo by the end of Q3.
The company had previously experienced a difficult second half in 2025, with half-year profit of N6.8 billion collapsing to just N620 million by year-end.
Looking ahead, AXA Mansard’s forecast for the final quarter of 2026 is more optimistic, projecting an insurance service result of N21.4 billion, investment income of N18.7 billion, and after-tax profit of around N12 billion.
Nonetheless, even if these targets are achieved, the company will remain well below the profit peak of nearly N26 billion recorded in 2024.
