The economy of Nigeria advanced 0.1 per cent Year on Year in the fourth quarter of 2020 after a 3.6 per cent contraction in the previous period.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Fourth quarter 2020 GDP and Full-year 2020 report released Thursday said the figure marks the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters, reflecting the gradual return of economic activities following the easing of restricted movements and limited local and international commercial activities in the preceding quarters.
“As a result, while the Q4 2020 growth rate was lower than the growth rate recorded the previous year by –2.44 per cent, it was higher by 3.74 per cent points compared to Q3 2020. On a quarter on quarter basis, real GDP growth was 9.68 per cent indicating a second positive consecutive quarter on quarter real growth rate in 2020 after two negative quarters. Overall, in 2020, the annual growth of real GDP was estimated at –1.92 per cent, a decline of –4.20 per cent points when compared to the 2.27 per cent recorded in 2019. In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N43,564,006.29 million in nominal terms.
The NBS report says the performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 which recorded a GDP aggregate of N39,577,340.04 million, representing a year on year nominal growth rate of 10.07 per cent. This growth rate was lower relative to growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 by –2.26 per cent points but higher than the preceding quarter by 6.68 per cent points with growth rates recorded at 12.34 per cent and 3.39 per cent respectively. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.
On a sector by sector analysis, the fourth quarter of 2020, during which an average daily oil production of 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded.show lower than the daily average production of 2.00mbpd in the same quarter of 2019 by -0.44mbpd and the third quarter of 2020 by –0.11mbpd.
“Real growth of the oil sector was –19.76 per cent (year-on-year) in Q4 2020 indicating a decrease by –26.12 per cent points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019. Growth decreased by –5.87 per cent points when compared to Q3 2020. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of –26.27 per cent in Q4 2020. For 2020, the oil sector grew at –8.89 per cent compared to 4.59 per cent in 2019. The oil sector contributed 5.87 per cent to total real GDP in Q4 2020, down from the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.32 per cent and 8.73 per cent respectively.
The non-oil sector grew by 1.69% in real terms in Q4 2020, slower than the 2.26 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019, but better than the –2.51 per cent growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter. For the full year of 2020 however, the non-oil sector grew –1.25 per cent compared to 2.06 per cent in 2019.
Growth in the quarter was driven by Information and Communication (Telecommunications &
Broadcasting). Other drivers were Agriculture (Crop Production), Real Estate, Manufacturing (Food,
Beverage & Tobacco), Mining and Quarrying (Quarrying and other Minerals), and Construction, accounting for positive GDP.
In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 94.13% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the share recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 (92.68 per cent ) and the third quarter of 2020 (91.27 per cent ). For 2020, the Non-Oil sector contributed 91.84% to real GDP, higher than 91.22 per cent recorded in 2019.
According to the NBS, Mining & Quarrying sector consists of Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Metal ore and Quarrying and other Minerals sub-activities. This sector grew nominally by –12.32 per cent (year on year) in Q4 2020 while annual growth rate was –15.02 per cent in 2020. Quarrying and other minerals exhibited the highest growth rate of all the sub-activities at 117.48 per cent, followed by metal ore activity at 2.73 per cent.
However, Crude Petroleum and Natural gas was the main contributor to the sector with a weight of 86.79 per cent in Q4 2020, and 93.95 per cent for the annual contribution. The performance in Q4 2020 indicates a decline of -25.07 per cent points compared to the previous year, but an increase of 7.60 per cent points compared to the preceding quarter.
The Mining & Quarrying sector contributed 5.46 per cent to overall GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020, lower than the contributions recorded in Q4 2019 (6.86 per cent ) and 7.65 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter. Overall contribution in 2020 was recorded at 7.12 per cent against 8.85 per cent recorded in 2019.
In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by –18.44 per cent (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter of 2020. Compared to the same quarter of 2019 and third quarter of 2020, it was lower by –24.51 per cent points and
–5.22 per cent points respectively. Quarter on quarter, the growth rate recorded was –25.02 per cent This sector recorded an annual growth rate of –8.54 per cent in 2020, compared to 4.43 per cent recorded in 2019. The
contribution of Mining and Quarrying to Real GDP in Q4 2020 stood at 6.09 per cent, lower than the rate of 7.48 per cent recorded in Q4 2019 and 8.91 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2020. Nevertheless, annual contribution to real GDP stood at 8.31 per cent in 2020 from 8.91 per cent recorded in 2019.”.
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