The presidential flag-bearers of the All Progressive Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party(PDP), Bola Tinubu and Abubakar Atiku, seem desperate to outdo each other to become Nigeria’s next president.
Although other presidential flag-bearers count, political pundits say either of the two political juggernauts will win the 2023 presidential election.
The Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) had updated its programme calendar to hold the presidential election on Saturday, February 25, 2023, and 18 political parties beat the Friday, June 10 deadline, to submit the final list of candidates to the electoral body.
A fortnight ago, the two bedfellows, Atiku and Tinubu, unveiled their economic agenda on which to run campaigns to solicit votes from the electorates.
Titled, ‘The three guiding principles of my economic agenda’, Atiku promised to give the private sector a greater role in the economy while repositioning the public sector to focus on its core responsibilities.
The serial presidential candidate vowed to break government monopoly in all sectors of the economy including infrastructure and allow the market greater leverage in determining prices, course of goods and services.
On his part, Tinubu, who against all odds won the APC presidential ticket, said his team would lead Nigeria to a new era of economic prosperity, peace, security and political stability.
In what is titled ‘My Vision for Nigeria’, the former Lagos State governor promised to transform Nigeria into greatness, the pride of Africa, a role model for all black people worldwide, and a country respected among all other countries.
He also promised to build an economy that would make the nation’s Gross Domestic Product grow quicker annually in the next four years, among other things.
The two sectors-agriculture and education have both been beset with challenges in recent times and worsened by insecurity in the country. The two have similarities in the way they have been affected by the worsening security challenges in the country.
In the education sector where incessant strikes have paralysed activities in its tertiary unit, one in every five of the world’s out-of-school children is in Nigeria, according to the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund(Unicef).
“Even though primary education is officially free and compulsory, about 10.5 million of the country’s children aged 5-14 years are not in school.
“Only 61 per cent of 6-11 year-olds regularly attend primary school and only 35.6 per cent of children aged 36-59 months receive early childhood education,” says Unicef.
The situation is also worrisome in agriculture where farmers have been forced to stay away from farmlands owing to banditry activities. Despite the contribution of about 24 per cent to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product(GDP), the sector faces many challenges which impact its productivity, says the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
“These include; poor land tenure system, low level of irrigation farming, climate change and land degradation. Others are low technology, high production cost and poor distribution of inputs, limited financing, high post-harvest losses and poor access to markets.”
These challenges have stifled agricultural productivity affecting the sector’s contribution to the country’s GDP as well as increased food imports due to population rise hence declining levels of food sufficiency, FAO also says.
Given these challenges, analysts, economic experts and political pundits, including other stakeholders, hold divergent views about the antecedents and capabilities of the two political flag-bearers at turning around the woes of the two critical sectors.
They expressed the worries that neither Atiku nor Tinubu have demonstrated the tenacity to be able to fix Nigeria’s economy, with a specific focus on the education and agriculture sectors.
Olusola Oloba, the agriculture sector coordinator at the secretariat of the National Action Committee (NAC) of the African African Continental Free Trade Area(AfCFTA), Abuja, noted Atiku to have been an advocate of green revolution right from his days as vice president.
“Agriculture remains a key part of his presidential campaign to date. As Vice President, his office implemented several agricultural initiatives to boost the livestock value chain,” Oloba said.
For Tinubu, the NAC-AfCFTA coordinator argued that the policy approach of his government towards ensuring food security in Lagos was a bit unique and typical of a state that lacks access to land for cultivation.
“The idea of partnering with states such as Kebbi, which has adequate land for agricultural activities, and rice production, started from Tinubu’s days as Governor.
“Tinubu would have performed better in agriculture and other primary activities but for lack of access to land for cultivation,” he said.
According to Global, a perfect compensation is to reflect on how well the agro-allied industries thrived under Tinubu’s administration.
“In the present days, it must be noted that the economic diversification agenda of the country is anchored on agriculture.
“Looking at Tinubu’s strategic plans in agriculture to ensure food security in Lagos State despite not having access to the most important agricultural input-land, he would embark on various initiatives to leverage the opportunities in the sector to change the economy’s narrative,” the NAC-AfCFTA coordinator added.
Ikechi Agbugba, a senior lecturer at the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Rivers State University, Port Harcourt, while noting that Nigeria’s economy is in shambles and required a fix, said the picture does not appear too rosy for Nigeria irrespective of who wins the 2023 election.
According to him, at the moment, trust is a major concern for the layman and ordinary Nigerian, and entrusting an economy to someone who does not have the interest of the poor masses at heart, calls for concern.
He lamented that sub-Sahara African(SSA) countries have often been unfortunate with leaders accused either while in office or after serving as a result of misappropriation of public funds.
Abba said, “These features appear to be a major source of worry, anxiety or concern for people while choosing their leaders.”
He said casting minds back on what happened when Tinubu was Lagos State governor and Atiku, vice president, raises the question: will an old general change his tactics?
“Truly, Atiku is pro-education, more than Tinubu because he runs a university. So that can be a selling point for him,” the don said.
Atiku and Tinubu were in government from 1999 to 2007 and have remained in the corridors of power.
But Agbugba said, “I do not see much improvement in education from both but I foresee some pockets of advancements in the agriculture sector.”
Revamping agric, education sectors
Regarding the crisis in both the agriculture and education sectors, Tinubu and Atiku may likely devote attention to revamping the sectors when one of them comes to power.
Although there was no elaborate food and agricultural policy by Tinubu during his stint as Lagos State governor, Agbugba recalled that his administration evolved an agricultural Micro-credit Scheme focused on helping farmers in boosting agricultural productivity.
He said, “Besides that, after Bola Tinubu’s tenure, successive administrations have focused on developing the agriculture sector.
“A major example is the Lagos/Kebbi joint venture agreement to establish a modern and commercially viable rice mill complex and efforts by Sanwo-Olu through the launch of a five-year agricultural development roadmap to boost agricultural productivity in the state.”
Interestingly, Tinubu’s manifesto emphasised that his administration will pay attention to agriculture by formulating national policies on agriculture to boost food production, and according to Agbugba, his manifesto also indicated that his administration will commit 25 per cent of the nation’s budget to education.
Further on education, he retorted that Tinubu’s administration invested in education across all tiers of the education sector.
“However, he initiated various policies that reformed, as well as repositioned the education sector in the state, including creating an enabling environment and funding education in the state,” the university don said.
He further commented that an interesting promise in Tinubu’s administration hinged on granting financial autonomy to tertiary institutions.
“Most people do not seem to understand the magnitude of this. It implies that tertiary institutions will be allowed to charge fees in meeting their financial needs without having to wait for cap-in-hand for federal funding,” he explained.
On the other hand, Agbugba said Atiku’s antecedents as a basis to project the likely trajectory of his policies on agriculture and education are much harder to construct.
“Atiku as a vice president was never responsible for formulating or implementing policies, rather he was under obligation to flow with the policy tide of his principal.
“However, an insight into the likely direction of his policies on agriculture and education can be reconstructed from his speeches and manifesto, as well as the reality of the Nigerian economy,” the university lecturer also said.
He asserted that Atiku appeared to be following the tide of public opinion on education and agriculture without a convincing blueprint.
He said, “For instance, in the past, Atiku proposed a free and compulsory primary and secondary education across the country.
“In the campaign leading to the PDP primaries, Atiku generally promised to revamp the education sector with a focus on equipping schools, getting out-of-school children back to school and producing graduates with an entrepreneurial mindset equipped with skills and competencies.”
He equally asserted that Atiku does not appear to view agriculture as an area to devote special attention to.
He retorted that Atiku’s administration would focus on five priority areas which are: unity, security, economy, education and devolving more powers to the federating units.
According to a Bowen University don and professor of political science and international studies, Prof Agaptus Nwozor, I only recall a tweet by Atiku to the effect that his administration will promote commercial agriculture and encourage cooperative societies among farmers, Agbugba quoted.
The bottom line for him is “how will Atiku or Tinubu generate the funds to impact adequately on these sectors?”
Business owners doubt Atiku, Tinubu’s capabilities
Some business owners who spoke with InsideBusiness said they were concerned about the issues surrounding security, infrastructures, education and agriculture sectors, as Nigerians wait to elect their next president.
David Ada’aja, a web designer, who is being optimistic about a government in 2023, expressed fear that either of the two flag-bearers may ruin Nigeria.
Ada’aja added, “I think for the first few months everywhere is going to be a bit shaky because no one believes in them. People are not sure of what is going to happen. Everything might change because Nigeria depends on the two sectors (educational and agricultural) for massive survival.”
An online vendor, who does not want his name mentioned, asserted Atiku has a sound business perspective and better edge, because of business partnerships with foreign countries, and more business orientation and knowledge.
“Tinubu on the other hand is one of the reasons some big firms left the country (Lagos especially) because of the tax rate imposed on them. Many businesses find it difficult to survive due to the high rate of tax imposed on them.
“Seriously, under Tinubu my doubts are high. This is because the major paramilitary forces that make life and commercial activities hard for people in the state where he once governed were his initiatives. Meaning that recruitment of thugs and giving them uniforms to legalise their wicked ways in the name of government and law enforcement agencies will be rampant,” he stressed.
Restructuring Agric, and Education, a strategic point for APC, PDP
The two big-weights flying the PDP and APC presidency ticket for the forthcoming general elections are desperate politicians and have been in politics for quite a while.
For Atiku and Tinubu, becoming Nigeria’s president has a desire to clinch one day, for reasons unclear and supposedly for the good of the country.
“There is no future with Atiku or Tinubu as President Nigeria. APC and PDP have nothing to offer us with these candidates as their flag-bearers,” Frederick Orji, told InsideBusiness.
With the ongoing Academic Staff Union of Universities(ASUU) strike and other union bodies, the education sector remains battered in recent times.
Frederick, a one-time public relations officer, said “Nigeria must grow crops that it consumes on a commercial basis for domestic consumption and export to African countries and the rest of the world.
“Nigeria is blessed with abundant natural and human resources. The country has no business importing food products to feed its citizens.”
When we identified oil as our primary source of revenue, we lost sight of agriculture. We must promote mechanised farming to redeem and reverse the trend of our shattered economy, he added.
‘Atiku, Tinubu will take Nigeria to the stone age’
As Nigerians look to transition to a new government in 2023, business communities are also worried over the state of the economy.
A crop of them, who spoke with InsideBusiness, lamented the increasing inflation rate, naira depreciation and public debt profile.
Chief Executive Officer of Blossom Kitchen and Event, Magaret Odia, said the choice of either Atiku or Tinubu means returning to the Stone Age.
According to her, both candidates are not coming with adequate credentials to do the job, but are only intoxicated to acquire the power for self-aggrandisement.
“The likelihood of Atiku or Tinubu becoming Nigeria’s next president is like taking us back to the Stone Age. I don’t see the two of them performing. I just feel they are flying there for their selfish interest and not for the interest of the masses.
“You can see that both of them contributed to the disaster we are currently in today. One of them was in power at the National level before today and nothing came out of it. The other has held a particular state (Lagos) hostage for years, although there are reports that the state is doing well, the Internally Generated Revenue(IGR) that Lagos is receiving, is performing below expectation. Logos should be doing far better than it is currently,” she said.
Asked if both candidates have what it takes to revive the economy, Odia said, “Looking at the economy, I do not expect anything from either of them. These two individuals do not have what it takes to turn around the economy.”
According to Odia, both candidates may come with the same ideas as that of the current occupant and will be a lose-lose for Nigerians.
“With what we have on the ground in this country, we need a very versatile president, who understands what the economy means and can take us away from this mess that we are in. And none of these two individuals you mentioned can do any of these.
“We do not need anybody that wants to fulfil a lifelong ambition for selfish reasons. We need someone that understands the challenges and has the solutions,” she said.
Another businessman, who deals in the agro-allied sector, Eze Okechukwu, said Nigeria needs more competent hands to take charge of affairs than any of the duo.
“It’s baffling that at this stage of our national life, we are still talking about Atiku and Tinubu, who are in their ’70s. None of these men has the solution to Nigeria’s problem,” he said.
As touching on education and agricultural sectors, Okechukwu said Atiku and Tinubu do not offer any sort of hope.
“Looking at the economy, nothing is working, no sector is working. Even in my area which is agriculture, none is working.
“As far as the 2023 election is concerned, Nigeria is doomed if Tinubu or Atiku emerged as president,” Okechukwu added.
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