Nigerians Expect Inflation to Rise further, Says CBN
By UMORU ABDULKADIR
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said in its latest Consumer Expectations Survey Report for the third quarter of 2019 that majority of consumers expect nation’s inflation rate to further rise in the next twelve months.
The Inflation rate which currently stands at 11.24 year-on-year (YOY) according to the September Inflation statistics recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is expected to further surge higher in the next twelve months.
In the report, the CBN said “most respondents expect prices of goods and services to rise in the next 12 months, with an index of 25.0 points.”
The report expect the increase in prices to be influenced factors including, purchase of appliances/ consumer durables, savings, education, purchase of car/motor vehicle, purchase of house and transportation.
Similarly, ‘the overall buying conditions index for big-ticket items in the current quarter stood at 30.3 points. Indicating that majority of consumers believed that the current quarter was not the ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like consumer durables, motor vehicles and house & lot.
”The buying intention index in the next twelve months stood at 36.2 index points, indicating that most consumers do not intend to buy big ticket items in the next 12 months. The buying intention indices for consumer durables, motor vehicles and house & lot were below 50 points, indicating that respondents have no plans to make these purchases in the next twelve months.”
According to the report, with indices of -6.2 and 13.9 points, Consumers expect the borrowing rate to drop but expect the naira to appreciate in value in the next 12 months.
The apex bank said the unemployment index for the next twelve months remained positive at 21.8 points in the third quarter of 2019, an indication that consumers generally expect the unemployment rate to rise in the next one year.
It said, with index at 3.8 points which is 2.3 points higher than the index in the corresponding period of 2018, the consumers’ overall confidence outlook rose in Q3 2019, as more consumers were optimistic in their outlook.
The favourable outlook was attributed to improved family income and family financial situation. The consumer outlooks for the next quarter and next 12 months were positive at 22.8 and 31.5 points, respectively.
The third quarter 2019 Consumer Expectations Survey was conducted during the period September 16-17, 2019 covering a sample size of 2,070 households drawn from 207 Enumeration Areas across the country with a response rate of 98.3 per cent.
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