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Nigeria’s headline inflation maintained its rapid rise, increasing by 38 basis points in November to 21.47 percent year-on-year, up from 21.09 percent in October, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Thursday.
This rapid increase which outpaces analysts’ projection as the tenth consecutive month uptrend, beats Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (21.30% y/y) by 17 basis points as well as Cordros’ estimate (21.37% y/y) by 10 basis points. It was the highest since September 2005 and largely attributed to food supply disruptions, import cost hikes due to currency depreciation, and a rise in production costs.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased by 15 basis points to 1.39 percent up from 1.24 percent m/m in October, primarily driven by sharp increases in food inflation which rose by 40 basis points to 24.13 percent year-on-year. In October, it had stood at 23.72 percent year-on-year.
The rise in food inflation was caused by increased prices of Bread and cereals, Oil and fat, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Food products, and Fish driven by insecurity and also the Russia-Ukraine war. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation settled at 1.40 percent relative to the 1.23 percent month-on-month recorded in October.
Similarly, the core inflation increased by 48 basis points to 18.24 percent year-on-year as against 17.76 percent recorded in October year-on-year, its highest reading since November 2016 (18.24% y/y).
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The prices of Gas, Liquid fuel, Passenger transport by Air, Vehicles spare parts, and Solid fuel recorded the highest increases. compared to the previous month, the core index grew by 74 basis points to 1.67 percent month-on-month in November 2022 as against the October increase of 0.93 percent.
The percentage change in the average CPI for the twelve months ending November 2022 was 15.6 percent, which was 2.7 percent points higher than the previous twelve months period which recorded 12.96 percent in November 2021. The urban consumers’ inflation rate for November 2022 on a year-on-year basis stood at 22.09 percent. This was 6.17 percent higher compared to the 15.92 percent recorded in November 2021.
The report also noted that on a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 1.50 percent in November 2022, adding that this was 0.16 percent higher compared to October (1.33%), even as the corresponding twelve-month average for the urban inflation rate was 18.90 percent in November. This was 1.35% percent higher compared to the 17.5 percent reported in November 2021.
“The inflation rate for rural consumers in November 2022 was 20.8 percent on a year-on-year basis; this was 5.9 percent higher compared to 14.89 percent recorded in November 2021. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in November 2022 was 1.30 percent, indicating a rise of 0.14% percent compared to October 2022 (1.16%).
While the corresponding twelve-month average for the rural inflation rate in November 2022 was 17.8 percent. This was 1.46 percent higher compared to the 16.42 percent recorded in November 2021. In comparing the states’ profiles, all-item inflation rates for November 2022 on a year-on-year basis were highest in Ebonyi (26.11%), Kogi (25.84%), Rivers (24.45%), while Kaduna (18.87%), Sokoto (19.02%) and Cross river (19.17%) recorded the slowest rise in inflation.
“On a month-on-month basis, however, November 2022 recorded the highest increases in Ebonyi (3.16%), Niger (2.70%), Plateau (2.44%), while Ogun (-0.17%), Abuja (-0.12%) and Sokoto (0.25%) recorded the slowest rise on month-on-month inflation
BADEJO ADEMUYIWA has 23 years experience as a Finance Writer, specialising in Insurance and Investigative Reporting.
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